Guide · heating sizing

Why you don’t size a heating air conditioner “by eye”

In summer the difference is invisible. In winter it isn’t. An air conditioner’s heating output falls together with the outdoor temperature, and the catalogue “kW” never shows it. Using real curves we explain why sizing for heating “by eye” can leave you with a cold house at the worst possible moment — and what to calculate instead.

The air conditioner that cools beautifully but won’t heat in the cold

When a unit only has to cool, a sizing mistake is forgivable. Slightly oversized — a bit more electricity. Undersized — on a heatwave it won’t quite reach the set point, but no harm is done. The margin for error is wide, so sizing “by eye” usually gets away with it.

Heating is different. The same machine that cools in summer runs in reverse in winter — and here “by eye” can leave you with a cold house at the worst possible moment: at −15 °C. The reason is single and simple:

An air conditioner’s heating output falls as the outdoor temperature drops. The colder it is, the less it heats — and the catalogue “kW” doesn’t show it.

“But the leaflet says 2.5 kW”

It does. Except that number is quoted for mild conditions — usually at an outdoor temperature of +7 °C. That is the “good-day” output. The problem is that a house needs heat most not at +7 °C, but at −10, −15, −20 °C — and then the unit delivers far less than the headline claims.

Look at the real curve of an actual unit. Call it Device A — a single-split of the 2.5 kW catalogue class. One column is the outdoor temperature, the other is how much heat it actually delivers:

Device A — how heating output changes with the cold
Outdoor temperatureHeating output (kW)COP
−7 °C5,02,58
−15 °C4,782,54
−25 °C3,62,22

Source: national heating databook (Nordic market), p. 39. Low-temperature capacity table. Manufacturer anonymised. Design point Pdesign at −10 °C = 3.2 kW.

Down to −15 °C the unit holds output almost unchanged (5.0 → 4.78 kW) — excellent. But in harder cold it delivers less: only 3.6 kW at −25 °C. And it becomes less economical too — COP falls from 2.58 to 2.22, meaning you get less and less heat from each kilowatt-hour of electricity.

Now a second unit — Device B — of the same catalogue class (2.5 kW), but with different cold-weather behaviour:

Device B — same catalogue class, different behaviour
Outdoor temperatureHeating output (kW)COP
−7 °C4,052,79
−15 °C3,452,50
−25 °C2,251,91

Source: national heating databook (Nordic market), p. 41. Low-temperature capacity table. Manufacturer anonymised. Design point Pdesign at −10 °C = 2.8 kW.

Notice: both units are the same catalogue class — 2.5 kW — yet at −7 °C they already differ in output (5.0 vs 4.05 kW), and at −25 °C greatly (3.6 vs 2.25 kW). Device A holds output deeper into the cold, but at mild cold it is slightly less economical (COP 2.58). Device B delivers less power in the cold, but at −7 °C it is more efficient (COP 2.79) — while in deep cold both its output and its efficiency collapse (2.25 kW, COP 1.91).

Which is “better”? Wrong question. The right one is the unit that fits your house and your location — and you can’t read that off the leaflet. In a −24 °C zone what matters is that A holds output; in a milder region B may be cheaper to run for most of the season.

Why you can’t simply compare these two tables

There is a trap deeper than the output drop itself. Manufacturers calculate their “kW” by different methods. One states output without accounting for defrost (every so often the unit must melt off the ice and briefly stops heating). Another states the value already net of those losses. A third measures under yet other conditions.

The result: two “5 kW” figures from two catalogues do not mean the same thing. Placing them side by side — by eye — you compare things that aren’t comparable and draw the wrong conclusion. To compare fairly you must first bring every unit onto a common method and to the temperature that actually occurs in your region in winter (the design temperature).

What you need to know to size it well

Instead of a single leaflet number, sensible heating sizing looks at several things at once:

Each of these is a separate calculation on the unit’s real data — not something you can estimate by sight. And that is exactly why “by eye” heating sizing can come back to bite you only in January, when it is already too late to change.

You’ll find low-temperature output and COP values for specific units in the datklima knowledge base — every number carries a provenance tag. You can also check a heating selection with the assistant.

Glossary

COP (coefficient of performance for heating)
Tells you how much heat you get from each unit of electricity. COP = 3 means: you draw 1 kW of electricity and get 3 kW of heat. The higher, the cheaper you heat. COP falls as it gets colder outside — which is why heating costs more in frost.
Design temperature
The lowest temperature realistically expected in a region in winter and against which heating is designed. Across most of Central Europe this is roughly −16 °C to −24 °C depending on the zone. Output is sized for this temperature — not for an “average winter” — so the house stays warm on the worst days too.
Bivalent point
The outdoor temperature below which the unit alone stops being sufficient and an additional heat source (e.g. an electric heater) kicks in. Above it the heat pump/air conditioner heats on its own; below it, it needs support. A well-chosen bivalent point is a compromise between equipment cost and electricity cost.
Catalogue (nominal) output
The “headline” kW figure from the leaflet. Quoted for mild conditions (usually +7 °C outdoors). It doesn’t tell you how much the unit heats in frost — which is precisely when it matters.
Defrost
At low temperatures frost builds up on the outdoor unit. Every so often the unit must melt it off and stops heating for those moments. Some manufacturers include this loss in the stated output, some don’t — which is why catalogue values can be non-comparable.

Frequently asked questions

Why does an air conditioner heat less when it’s colder outside?

Because in heating mode an air conditioner is a heat pump: it moves heat from the outdoor air into your home. The colder the air, the less heat there is in it to “pump”, so heating output drops and the electricity used per unit of heat (COP) rises. The house needs heat most exactly when the unit delivers the least.

How many kW does an air conditioner deliver at −15 °C if the leaflet says more?

The leaflet number is quoted for mild conditions (usually +7 °C). On the real curve the same 2.5 kW-class unit delivers, at −15 °C, e.g. 4.78 kW or 3.45 kW — depending on the model — and even less at −25 °C. The exact value for a specific unit must be read from its heating curve, not from the headline.

Does the catalogue output (kW) tell you how much a unit heats in frost?

No. The catalogue (nominal) output is measured in mild conditions and tells you how much the unit heats “on a good day”. In frost — that is, when it matters most — it delivers far less. Heating sizing depends on the real output at the local design temperature, not on the leaflet number.

Why can’t you compare two units by the “kW” alone from two catalogues?

Because manufacturers calculate their “kW” by different methods. One states output in stable conditions, without accounting for the defrost cycle (an optimistic value), another states it net of those losses. So two “5 kW” figures from two catalogues do not mean the same thing. To compare fairly you must bring every unit onto a common method and to the same temperature.

What is the design temperature?

It is the lowest temperature realistically expected in a region in winter and against which heating is designed. Across most of Central Europe it is roughly −16 °C to −24 °C depending on the zone. Output is sized for this temperature, not for an “average winter”, so the house stays warm on the worst days too.

What is the bivalent point?

It is the outdoor temperature below which the unit alone stops being sufficient and an additional heat source (e.g. an electric heater) engages. Above it the heat pump/air conditioner heats on its own; below it, it needs support. A well-chosen bivalent point is a compromise between equipment cost and electricity cost.

How do you size an air conditioner or heat pump for heating?

You calculate the house’s heat loss at the local design temperature, read the unit’s real output at that very temperature (from its heating curve, not the headline), set the bivalent point, and in multi-split sets check whether the outdoor unit can carry all indoor units at once.

The tables above are anonymised excerpts from national heating databooks (Nordic market), given to illustrate the mechanism.